Reasoning.

Think - Simon Blackburn
Chapter 6 - reasoning

Formal logic, inductive reasoning, elements of scientific reasoning

A little logic
- working parts of an argument are it’s ‘premises’ (what is accepted or assumed)
- from these ‘premises’ we can derive a conclusion
- if we don’t accept the conclusion we have two options:
1. Reject some premises (untrue)
2. Reject the way the conclusion is drawn from the premises. (Invalid reasoning)
- logic is interested in whether arguments are valid
- Aristotle, form of an argument:
Modus ponens
P;
If p then q;
So, q.
- there is no way our conclusion could be false if the premises are true.

Plausible Reasonings
- we expand beliefs on a daily basis… Our pragmatic approach goes under ‘plausible’ or ‘reasonable’
- Open to the world of POSSIBILITES
- Hume points out the problem: all our experience is from the past and the present so if we are to make assumptions about the future then these are inferences. All based on past experience and could be wrong, but then, this is all we have isn’t it? The Sun has risen every day for all humanity but doesn’t follow that it will rise tomorrow, it is a belief
Hume: THE PROBLEM OF INDUCTION

The Lottery For The Golden Harp
- arguments from experience rely upon resemblence, that the future will be like the past.. UNIFORMITY OF NATURE

Chancy Stuff
- 1/1000 people will have the disease
- test is 99% accurate
- however if have the disease the chance of having it will be 1/11